Planning for Inheritance
To ensure your assets are distributed in accordance with your wishes, detailed financial planning is essential. Without a legal will, up-to-date...
3 min read
Doug Hutchinson : Aug 23, 2024 5:18:24 AM
Nvidia’s market cap reached $3.3 trillion in mid-June, briefly eclipsing Microsoft as the largest publicly traded company in the world. When thinking about Nvidia’s rapid ascent, the obvious question to ask is: can Nvidia remain one of the largest companies in the world long-term?
Looking at the question through a historical lens can be helpful. The world’s top 10 largest companies at the turn of the millennium are different than the top 10 today (with one exception). Here’s a quick look back in time:
Market Cap
A company’s market capitalization, or market cap, is a method of measuring the size of a company. It’s calculated by multiplying the number of outstanding shares by the current stock price.
In this context, we’ll use market cap to rank the largest companies in the world. There are other measures, such as highest revenue or highest number of employees, but for this discussion we’ll use market cap to measure a company’s size.
The Largest Companies in the World as of June 30, 2024.
Click to view a larger image
Please note: the list above only includes publicly traded companies. It does not include any privately held companies such as the Chinese technology company ByteDance (TikTok’s parent company) or Cargill, the American food and commodities company.
The list of the largest companies changes quite a bit over time. Newer companies come to market, while older, more established companies might struggle to maintain dominance over time.
The Largest Companies in the World in the Year 2000
Click to view a larger image
Except for Microsoft, every single company on the 2000 list fell out of the top 10 by 2024. In fact, some of the companies on the 2000 list are nowhere near the top 10 today.
Nokia cell phones were ubiquitous in the early 2000s, so it makes sense that Nokia would be one of the most valuable companies in the world at that time. Needless to say, Nokia phones are not nearly as popular today as they were back then. Nokia barely makes the list of the top 1000 largest firms in the world. As of June 30th, 2024, it ranks 877th.
In the early 2000s, technology firms such as Cisco and Intel traded at lofty valuations. But both companies sold off sharply when the dotcom/technology bubble burst and neither company has come close to cracking the top 10 ever since. As of June 30th, 2024, Intel is currently the 112th largest company in the world and Cisco ranks 62nd.
This bubble would pop a couple of years into the 90s, but 6 of the 10 largest companies in the world in 1990 were based in Japan and the 4 largest companies were all Japanese banks!
The Largest Companies in the World: 1989
Click to view a larger image
For a brief time in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the market value of the Japanese stock market was larger than that of the US stock market. This is much, much different than today when the market value of the US stock market is larger than the market value of the entire world’s collective stock markets combined.
The 1980 list is dominated by oil companies as the price of oil was still very high following the oil shock of the late 1970s.
The Largest Companies in the World: 1980
Click to view a larger image
Note that the 2024 list looks very, very different than the 1980 list. Some of today’s powerhouses like Microsoft and Apple were in their infancy as companies in 1980. Others like Google and Nvidia would not even be founded until the 1990s. Meta Platforms (Facebook) was not founded until 2004 and the company’s founder, Mark Zuckerberg, was not even born until 1984!
The years 1980, 1989, 2000 and 2024 represent different points in different market cycles. Right now, the market is rewarding innovative technology companies, particularly those involved in Artificial Intelligence such as Nvidia and Microsoft.
Will this still be the case 10 years from now? 20 Years from now?
Today’s winners are not necessarily tomorrow’s top companies. Technologies evolve, and different sectors, countries and companies fall into and out of favor over time.
When investing for retirement, or other long-term goals, it can be helpful to keep these historical charts in mind. Back in 2000, buying Cisco stock might have made sense. It was among the world’s largest companies and supplied much of the infrastructure for the internet and technology boom in the years to come. But if you purchased Cisco stock at the high point in 2000, those shares would still be underwater nearly 25 years later.
What Will the Top 10 List Look Like in the Future?
Maybe Nvidia is the next Cisco or the next Nokia and will be nowhere near the top 10 in 2044. Or maybe Nvidia is the next Microsoft and will dominate for multiple decades. If history is any guide, the list of top companies in the world for 2044 will look much different than the list today.
If you’re feeling uncertain about what the future has in store, that’s completely understandable. There are a lot of variables to consider — in the short and long term.
We’ve helped hundreds of individuals and families craft a savings and investment strategy to meet their goals and avoid common financial challenges. To learn more about what we do and schedule a free consultation, contact us here.
Related Reading:
Fill out the form to be notified about new articles.
To ensure your assets are distributed in accordance with your wishes, detailed financial planning is essential. Without a legal will, up-to-date...
Choosing when to file for Social Security benefits is one of the biggest decisions you’ll make leading up to retirement. The timing can significantly...
If you have a taxable investment account, tax loss harvesting could help you reduce your tax burden. Before the year is out, take a look at your...