Avatar Investment Management's July commentary draws parallels between this year and the last two years. A review of their portfolios is also included. "For the third year in a row, the statistics on the performance of the economy for the first half are showing a marked deceleration in activity. If form holds, the economy should catch its footing in the second half, as it did in the last two years. While it is often said that the stock market looks far ahead, that does not always mean that it overlooks what is more directly ahead. In other words, confidence about the second half of the year has to be constantly earned over shorter periods of time. What may be different in the last few years is the fear that just looking up across the valley might cause one to miss a steep crevice below. To the extent that the global economy is still working off the incredible amount of excess debt that had been built up going into 2007, it is understandable that not only would economic growth expectations be limited, but the fear of a fatal stumble would remain part of the investment psyche."
