The significant investment decision of the moment is to not allow the "Secular" to overwhelm the "Cyclical" and turn you from a "Bull" to a "Bear" when investing in the current market. While the economic news coming from the popular financial press continues to be bleak, in April the United States stock market was up for the twelfth time in the past fourteen months. How can that be? For a number of years we have communicated our research studies on two types of Stock Market cycles that impact the risks for investors, the "Secular" (longer term, 30 to 40 years) and the "Cyclical" (shorter term, 3 to 5 years). Download Churchill’s Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Churchill Management Group [+] Read More

Our Market Sentiment indicator turned negative today, 13 months since our Market Sentiment indicator turned positive in April 2009. As such, we will move from our current cash position of 50% to 100% by the end of the trading day in the All Cap Core strategy. Over the past few days we have been aggressively raising cash as Market Sentiment began to deteriorate causing us to take a proactive defensive position. The Market Sentiment indicator is not a predictor of markets and it does not capture the absolute tops and bottoms of the market - it is not an oracle. However, what we know with 30 years of Market Sentiment data is that once the indicator turns negative, fundamental investing becomes less important as emotions start to affect investment decisions. In negative Market Sentiments, market volatility increases and the market becomes intolerant of risk. In these emotional, high risk markets, there is a much higher possibility of a significant loss of capital. How long the market will remain negative remains to be seen. If the US economy is able to persist in its recovery phase despite the problems in the Euro zone, the time the market will spend in negative territory may be short in duration. However, the best strategy now is to play defense by moving to cash and let the market works its way out of this condition. These are the times that demonstrate the importance of a tactical strategy to protect capital in declining markets. Best Regards, Simon Get Free Research Reports about Baker Avenue Asset Management [+] Read More

Astor Asset Management's latest commentary takes a look at the past decade and discusses several topics to put today's world into perspective. After describing where we are now, they look ahead to 2010 and explain their prediction. Several different areas of the market and economy are discussed, including the US Dollar, emerging markets, government debts, and the yield curve. Download Full Commmentary Here [+] Read More

In our January publication, we stated that 2010 may be the year of duration and have warned clients of the need to manage duration risk. The Barclays Aggregate Index has recently delivered two months of negative returns: -1.56% in December 2009 and -0.12% in March 2010. These negative returns are being driven by duration, as 5 Year Treasury yields have risen 54bps from the end of November to the end of March, while the Barclay’s Corporate Index has actual spreads tightening from 172bps to 150bps over the same period. So, fundamentals matter. This is why we are very attentive to the trend of recent economic data. Download Full Commmentary Here [+] Read More

Cash surpluses and low interest rates are factors that may portend an increase in merger and acquisition activity, which could bolster the sentiment that ample value exists within corporate America. Lord Abbett examines this dynamic with insights from Milton Ezrati, Partner, Senior Economist and Market Strategist, and Christopher Towle, Partner & Director of High Yield and Convertible Investments. Download Full Commmentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Lord Abbett Company Llc [+] Read More

As the Credit Crisis unfolded over the past two years, banks made headlines by reporting unprecedented losses. Some of the most prominent financial institutions collapsed or teetered on the brink of insolvency, prompting the government to mount a massive, unparalleled rescue program. While the specifics of this last crisis may vary from those that came before it, we believe that the cyclicality of the banking industry continues to be relevant. As with every cycle, the losses are cleared away to make room for improvement. But the potential for this cyclical improvement, in our view, is currently being underestimated by investors. Download Full Commmentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Clover Capital Management [+] Read More

Now that spring has arrived, kids are excited about visiting their local amusement parks to ride their favorite roller coasters. With the recent gains in the stock market, investors also seem to be queuing up again for the roller coaster ride in stocks. US markets continued their climb in the first quarter of 2010 with the S&P 500 Index gaining 5.39% on the quarter, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 4.81%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index gaining an impressive 8.85%. Download Full Commmentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Baker Avenue Asset Management [+] Read More

Federated believes we are coming out of a 25 year period where the interest of investors was fixated on rising stock prices, and away from the cash component of equities. Due to the recent economic and financial environment, Federated thinks that an increasing amount of investors will start seeking a better cash return on their investments, and that dividend strategies will do well as companies start to become more dividend oriented. Download Full Commmentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Federated Investors Inc [+] Read More

Astor believes that 2010 will be a positive year for the markets but the returns will be somewhere in the single digits. They think volatility will increase as the economy continues to recover and at times show mixed signals, although overall the state of things will be much calmer than 2009. Download Full Commmentary Here [+] Read More