Churchill Management Group believes the odds of a stock market correction, defined by them as 10-20%, have increased. Their latest commentary explains their thinking, and addresses five news stories to expect this fall. "The above title is an old practical adage of Wall Street that describes how markets get rattled on the rumor of events to come and tend to settle down after the news has been revealed. As we go through the maturing phase of the bull market that began four-and-a-half years ago, it is a statement to keep in mind as the news coming in September is set to be expansive and emotional. On the docket are..." Download Churchill's Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports on Churchill Management [+] Read More

Eagle Asset Management's Senior Portfolio managers sit down and discuss their outlook on what they consider the main issues in the world today. "Eagle Asset Management’s equity and fixed-income portfolio managers regularly meet to discuss ideas, events in the financial markets and potential opportunities for investors. The global economy still has areas of concern, especially in Europe and China. Meanwhile, there are mixed data points on the domestic front. Our managers’ discussion included such topics as how and when the Federal Reserve will taper its quantitative-easing program; U.S. energy independence; what effects, if any, federal policy and politics have on markets; and – perhaps most interesting to readers – how they have positioned investment portfolios." Download Eagle Asset Management's Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports on Eagle Asset Management [+] Read More

WrapManager’s Weekly Summary of Market and Economic News Eurozone Exits Longest Recession in Over 40 Years> Initial reports have the Eurozone posting 0.3% growth in the second quarter, signaling the Eurozone may have exited its longest recession in over 40 years. France and Germany helped pull the Eurozone up with 0.7% and 0.5% GDP growth, respectively, however Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands still posted negative GDP numbers. In spite of potentially having exited its longest recession in 40 years, the Eurozone still carries a 12.1% unemployment rate as of June.1 That is almost double the current unemployment rate in the U.S., which as of July stood at 7.4%.2 Japanese Debt Tops 1 Quadrillion Yen Japan’s outstanding debt (including borrowings) rose to a record 1,008.6 trillion yen, representing the most debt held by any country in the world. The fact that Japanese debt tops 1 quadrillion yen also means it’s debt burden is larger than the economies of Germany, France, and the UK—combined. [+] Read More

Cambiar Investors' latest commentary reviews the international and emerging markets, along with the performance of their two international investment strategies. "Despite impressive annualized gains over the past three years, global equities have largely taken a backseat to their fixed income counterparts. Within equities, the U.S. has been the top-performing market, while austerity and slow growth have been headwinds for Europe, and Emerging Markets remain volatile. The Cambiar International Equity and Global Select portfolios continue to seek balance and broad diversification, while maintaining a degree of nimbleness to 'flex' the portfolio if a given sector/region becomes particularly attractive." Download Cambiar Investors' Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports on Cambiar Investors [+] Read More

Portfolio Manager Richard Skeppstrom explains why he's continuing to hold his ~60% allocation to equities moving forward. "June jobs, reported July 5, came in stronger than expected at 195,000 and previous months were revised higher. Treasury rates exploded up to 2.725 percent. Markets, both equity and bond, interpreted the numbers as a signal that the economy is indeed stronger and Fed accommodation will ebb." Download Eagle Asset Management's Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports on Eagle Asset Management [+] Read More

WrapManager’s Weekly Summary of Top Economic and Market News United States The Bureau of Economic Analysis released initial second quarter GDP numbers Wednesday, coming in at +1.7%. Since real GDP increased +1.1% in the first quarter, this marked an overall acceleration in the growth rate. The uptick primarily reflected gains in nonresidential fixed investment, exports, a smaller decrease in federal government spending, and an upturn in state and local government spending[i]. A day before GDP numbers were released, the Federal Reserve issued a statement labeling US economic activity in the first half of the year as “modest.” They pointed to improving labor market conditions as well as stronger activity within the housing sector, but noted that fiscal policy (reduced government spending) is restraining growth. With inflation still in check and economic conditions as they are, the Fed has indicated they will continue with their current monetary stimulus programs[ii]. President Obama is floating a proposal to cut corporate taxes from 35% down to 28%, while giving manufacturers a preferred rate of 25%. His plan would also include a minimum tax on foreign earnings, as a method of working to avoid corporate tax evasions and curbing international tax havens. The proposed plan is likely to be met by resistance from both parties in Congress, as Democrats are reluctant to lower taxes and Republicans are wary of the new spending proposals that come with the plan. Republicans have also been fairly vocal that any grand deficit reduction deal would need to include structural changes to programs like Medicare and Social Security, which Obama’s proposal does not include[iii]. Europe Last week we reported that European PMI (manufacturing data) came in at 50.1, but those figures were revised higher this week to 50.3. Any reading above 50 signals expansionary activity. PMI rose for every country in the euro zone except for Spain, and the 50.3 reading marks a two year high[iv]. [+] Read More

WrapManager’s Weekly Summary of Top Economic and Market News United States US Bankruptcy Judge Steven Roberts ruled Wednesday that Detroit could continue bankruptcy proceedings, allowing city officials to move forward in restructuring some $18 billion of debt, which includes $5.7 billion in unfunded liabilities for healthcare and other retiree benefits and a $3.5 billion pension liability. This marks the largest municipal Chapter 9 filing in US historyi. Earnings season continues in full force, with notable technology giants Apple and Facebook reporting this week. Both companies exceeded expectations, with Apple reporting earnings of $7.47 per share on revenues of $35.3 billion, while analysts estimated it would make $7.32 per share on $35.02 billionii. Facebook widely exceeded earnings estimates due to better than expected revenue on mobile ads. The company reported earnings of 19 cents per share on revenues of $1.81 billion, which outstripped estimates of 14 cents per share on revenue of $1.62 billioniii. Of the 104 companies that have reported earnings as of July 19, 72% of them have exceeded expectations. So far, this is slightly better than last year’s average of 70%, and in line the four year average of 73%iv. Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling coalition (known as the Liberal Democratic Party, LDP) scored a major victory Sunday in winning enough seats to secure a majority in the upper house. The LDP now has a majority in both chambers of parliament, giving the party greater control to potentially continue aggressive monetary policies that have characterized Japanese politics this yearv. [+] Read More

Louis Navellier looks at Ben Bernanke's comments and their subsequent affect on the markets. "The S&P rose 40 points (+2.96%) last week, reaching a new closing high above 1680. The biggest gain came Thursday, following a series of positive economic indicators and Ben Bernanke’s dramatic change of heart on U.S. monetary policy. This week, second-quarter earnings announcement season will begin in earnest. Currently, analyst expectations for second quarter sales and earnings are so downbeat that any positive surprises will likely result in a continued rise to yet more new market highs." Download Navellier's Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports on Navellier & Associates [+] Read More

Roosevelt Investments' All Cap Core Equity Team reviews the second quarter and gives their outlook for the rest of the year. "Equity markets were volatile in the last half of the second quarter, demonstrating investor sensitivity to statements from the Federal Reserve regarding the future of its quantitative easing program. Concerns about Fed policy dominated capital markets in the second quarter, generating volatility in stock and bond prices. Despite some hair-raising moments, U.S. equities ultimately continued their upward trajectory." Download Roosevelt's Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports on Roosevelt Investment Group [+] Read More