We see more political uncertainty ahead...
Washington averted an imminent fiscal crisis, but the result could be a steep fiscal cliff in December or early 2018. We see heightened political uncertainty toward year-end as the U.S. Congress must revisit lifting the federal borrowing limit and funding the government. We could see this delaying and reducing the scope of any tax reform.
Read an excerpt of Richard Turnill's weekly commentary below, or
view the entire weekly investment commentary here.
It was a natural disaster that spurred politicians into action last week. The debt ceiling and funding plan is packaged with provisions to provide hurricane relief as authorities in Texas and Louisiana assess the devastation and tragic toll caused by Hurricane Harvey. This came just as Florida was bracing for the impact of Hurricane Irma. A government shutdown, the likely outcome of failure to pass a 2018 budget, would have been detrimental at a time when states are looking to the federal government for much-needed assistance.
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U.S. Treasury yields hit their lowest level year-to-date amid further geopolitical tensions. Risk aversion was more exaggerated in bond and currency markets than in equities, which traded flat. The Chinese yuan hit a 16-month high versus the U.S. dollar. U.S. weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, reflecting the effects of Hurricane Harvey.
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The ECB maintained its policy stance, lowered its 2018 and 2019 inflation forecasts, and signaled an upcoming decision on quantitative easing adjustments. The euro strengthened versus the dollar.
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Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said he is resigning eight months before his term ends, leaving three Fed seats empty into 2018. The Bank of Canada hiked rates for a second time this year. The Canadian dollar rose.
Review the complete commentary here, including a chart showing the yield spread of
U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills) around debt-ceiling deadlines. Or,
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