We Expect Modest Economic and Earnings Improvements
Robert C. Doll, CRA, Senior Portfolio Manager, Chief Equity Strategist serves serves as a leading member of the equities investing team for Nuveen Asset Management, providing reasoned analysis through equity portfolio management and ongoing market commentary.
Read an excerpt of his weekly commentary below, or view the entire weekly investment commentary here.
Key Points:
- The Brexit vote will have some negative long-term economic and market effects, but the U.S. economy should remain relatively solid.
- Corporate earnings are the key for equities, and we expect modest improvements over the second half of 2016.
- Returns are likely to stay low, but equities should outperform bonds.
Brexit Worries Will Remain in Focus
A couple of weeks after the U.K.’s Brexit vote, financial markets have calmed but investors are still faced with a great deal of uncertainty. The good news is that the economies in the U.S. and much of Europe were mildly accelerating before the referendum. We expect the U.S. will continue on a slow-growth path. Consumer spending in the U.S. should benefit from still-strong employment, rising wages, a firming housing market and pent-up demand in the form of savings. European equities, not surprisingly, are likely to be the most adversely affected by Brexit, but growth-oriented markets such as emerging markets and Japan will also suffer comparatively, as global growth expectations weaken and deflation fears continue to increase.
The political implications of Brexit are arguably more important than the economic effects. Brexit raises questions about the EU model of economic unity. The political influence of populist leaders has been rising throughout the world in recent years, and we believe the possibility of a broader move toward nationalist, isolationist and protectionist policies would be a negative for global economic growth and risk assets, including equities. This trend bears watching.
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