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Is the Market Heading Toward Another Bubble? - Churchill Management

Posted by Michael J. O'Connor | CWS®, Vice President Investments

November 6, 2013


Churchill Management Group's November commentary looks back at past market bubbles and compares them to the current market environment.

"Generally after a bubble has occurred, it takes many decades for human behavior to rise up to another extreme. Amazingly, thanks to the investing public jumping back into the market, it seems possible that the NASDAQ is starting to look a little bubble-like barely a decade after its last Bubble peaked. We are calling this a “DOUBLE BUBBLE”."

 

PDF Download  Download Churchill's Full Commentary Here

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Churchill Management Group

Social Security and Restricted Application for Spousal Benefits

November 2, 2013
In our previous post titled “Maximize Social Security with the File and Suspend Strategy,” we showed you a strategy that married couples might use to increase their social security retirement benefits. Not too many retirees are aware that strategies like this exist to increase social security income1, and it goes to show that with the right type of planning, people can get more out of retirement than they might think. There is another strategy known as the Restricted Application for Spousal Benefits that married couples also may use to increase the size of their social security checks. This method allows for one spouse to start collecting spousal benefits, while simultaneously having their retirement benefits grow through the accumulation of delayed retirement credits. Below we’ll explain how this works. [+] Read More

Potential Impact of a Government Shutdown on Your Portfolio Strategy

November 2, 2013
Many investors are wondering how a government shutdown could affect the stock market and their portfolio strategy. History suggests that past government shutdowns have had little effect on the market, though in 2011 the threat of a government shutdown corresponded with a stock market correction. In any case, investors should consult with their financial advisor to ensure their portfolio is properly diversified according to their financial plan. How Has the Stock Market Reacted to Past Government Shutdowns? The last two government shutdowns occurred fairly closely to one another - one lasted from November 13 - November 19, 1995, and the next one spanned from December 5, 1995 - January 6, 1996.1 The S&P 500 exhibited a bit of choppiness in that general time frame, but the general trajectory of the bull market was unaffected: Figure 1: S&P 500 from January 1, 1995 – December 31, 2006 (click chart for larger version) Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve [+] Read More

Third Quarter International Equity Market Outlook - Cambiar Investors

October 31, 2013
International equity money manager Cambiar Investors' latest investment commentary discusses their outlook for the international equity markets and the performance of their International and Global equity portfolios. From the commentary: "As we enter the final quarter of 2013, it would not be a surprise if the year-to-date enthusiasm towards equities wanes in favor of a more defensive posture. The reasons for caution are plentiful: gridlock in Washington, taper timing by the Fed, a new Fed Chairperson, uncertainty in Syria, and above all – a stock market that is no longer that cheap. As the saying goes, the market climbs a wall of worry…but resolution on these fronts would certainly bolster investor confidence." Download Cambiar Investors' Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports on Cambiar Investors [+] Read More

'Wait and See' Issues Holding Back Global Growth - Calamos Investments

October 14, 2013
Money manager Calamos Investments' latest investment commentary focuses on their cautiously optimistic global outlook and why they believe the US equity market has more room to expand. "As we write this, markets are facing a number of issues that fall into the “wait-and-see” category - from the government shutdown and debt-ceiling negotiations in the U.S., to next steps for the euro zone and third-arrow reforms in Japan. These uncertainties are largely political in nature, and we expect them to foment considerable market volatility. However we believe that the global economy has healed considerably since the 2008 financial crisis, and the twin pillars of accommodative monetary policy and stimulative fiscal policy can allow global growth to continue in the 2% to 3% range." Download the Full Calamos Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports on Calamos Investments [+] Read More

3 Benefits to Consolidating Your Investment Accounts

October 8, 2013
There are several benefits to consolidating your investment accounts in one place. For some investors, however, this may not be possible for a variety of reasons. One option is to have a financial advisor build a comprehensive plan that includes all of your investment accounts. This can provide many of the benefits of consolidating your investment accounts. Benefit # 1: Help Ensure Your Portfolio is Properly Diversified By combining your investment accounts in one place, you’ll potentially be able to understand what your overall investments look like, and as a result, be better able to make decisions regarding your asset allocation, risk level and more. When you have investment accounts in multiple places - an IRA at Schwab, a Trust at Fidelity, a 529 plan at TD Ameritrade, for instance - you can easily lose track of your overall asset allocation. Many investors often have investment strategies in multiple accounts that overlap, resulting in an improperly diversified portfolio and inappropriate risk levels. [+] Read More

Assessing How a News Story Might Impact Your Portfolio

October 6, 2013
With so much news to consider on a daily basis, it’s important to filter out which news stories might impact the direction of the stock market and your investment portfolio. Some news stories seem like they should adversely affect the markets but they don’t, while others are significant enough to warrant a review of your portfolio allocation and financial plan. If a news story has you considering making changes to your portfolio, call your financial advisor first. He or she can act as a voice of reason to help determine whether making changes is necessary. [+] Read More

Talking With Your Financial Advisor About a Fixed Income Strategy

October 6, 2013
If you’ve been tracking your fixed income performance this year, you’re probably wondering what’s going on. Depending on your goals, a fixed income allocation should generate income, help preserve your principal, hopefully provide stability during more volatile times or provide a combination of all three. Recently, these benefits have been challenged by the exceptional volatility and trend in interest rates, which has resulted in less than desirable performance for many fixed income portfolios. Take this as an opportunity to have a financial advisor evaluate or re-evaluate your fixed income portfolio to help you ensure that it’s properly diversified and working for you and your goals. [+] Read More

"Here We Go Again" - Will the Debt Ceiling Debate Affect Your Portfolio?

September 30, 2013
On August 26, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew sent a letter to Congress warning them that the U.S. will likely reach the debt ceiling by mid-October. He noted that if Congress doesn’t raise it, the financial implications could be adverse for our economy and potentially the global financial system.1 The first thought for many investors is, “here we go again.” As frustrating as these political battles might be, over the past couple of years the debt ceiling debate in Congress hasn’t had much impact on the direction of the stock market, which has been trending higher. Will this time be different? What does the debt ceiling debate mean for your portfolio? A look at history might help us address these questions. The Debt Ceiling Debate Has Been Going On For Over 75 Years The debt ceiling debate is not a recent phenomenon, nor is it unique to any one political party. Since March 1962, Congress has changed the debt limit 77 times, and since the late 1950’s Congress has raised the limit every year, with the exception of fiscal year (FY) 1969 and between FY 1997 – FY 2001. More recent changes to the debt ceiling came through the Budget Control Act of 2011, under which the debt ceiling was raised on three separate occasions. The most recent change came in May of this year, when the debt limit was set at $16.669 trillion, where it stands today.2 [+] Read More

What Are the Differences Between Medigap and Medicare Advantage?

September 27, 2013
What is Medigap? Medigap is private insurance you can purchase to help cover some or most of your out-of-pocket expenses associated with Traditional Medicare. It doesn’t replace your Traditional Medicare, it just helps you pay for it. You’d still get all of the coverage associated with Plans A and B. What Does Medigap Cover? The out-of-pocket expenses Medigap helps you pay for: Part A hospital deductibles, Part B outpatient co-pays, out-of-country medical emergencies, and fees not covered by Parts A and B.1 Why Do People Purchase Medigap? People looking to reduce out-of-pocket healthcare costs are usually the ones to purchase Medigap. There are ten Medigap plan options, and all of them are standardized by law, so the benefits of each is the same regardless of which insurer sells it. The only difference between the ten plans is the cost (it can be expensive), so shopping around is crucial.2 [+] Read More