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BlackRock: Trump's Impact on the Stock Market

Posted by WrapManager's Investment Policy Committee

November 14, 2016

Donald Trump’s unexpected election win points to uncertainty ahead.

Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory brings market and policy uncertainty in the short run. Trump’s agenda lacks detail and departs from the Republican Party tradition on trade, security and entitlements. Tapping into a backlash against the Washington status quo, he has often appeared at war with his own party and has surrounded himself with less-known advisors.

We expect an initial sell-off in risk assets and flight to perceived safe havens. We see emerging markets as particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on exports and investor sentiment. We expect steeper yield curves and see health care stocks outperforming due to likely reduced regulation under Trump.

 
Read on for an excerpt of Blackrock Investment Institute's commentary, or  view the entire document here.

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Investment Plan Portfolio Strategy Blackrock Inc Election Commentary

Blackrock: Impact of the 2016 Election on Investing

November 3, 2016
Unusually consequential election challenges the post-crisis status quo. The 2016 U.S. election campaign has been unique in many ways, but the underlying dynamics are not. These are partly driven by widening income inequality across the world, in our view, a trend that has accelerated after the financial crisis and subsequent policy responses. Related is a growing perception that the benefits of trade and globalization have only accrued to a few. Whoever moves into the White House will have to address these issues, and we could see fiscal expansion directed at improving infrastructure and measures aimed at redistributing prosperity. We expect similar themes and outcomes to play out in key European elections next year. Read on for an excerpt of Blackrock Investment Institute's commentary, or view the entire document here. [+] Read More

BlackRock Weekly Update September 2016

September 12, 2016
September interest rate increase looks less likely... Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, gives us the week in review. Turnhill was previously Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s fixed income and active equity businesses, and has also led the Global Equity investment team. Read an excerpt of his weekly commentary below, or view the entire weekly investment commentary here. [+] Read More

BlackRock Weekly Update August 2016

August 9, 2016
The worst of the U.S. profits recession appears to be over... Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, gives us the week in review. Turnhill was previously Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s fixed income and active equity businesses, and has also led the Global Equity investment team. Read an excerpt of his weekly commentary below, or view the entire weekly investment commentary here. [+] Read More

BlackRock Commentary Midyear 2016

July 12, 2016
With half the year over, BlackRock's commentary delivers an overview for the rest of the year. Read the excerpt here, or download the full BlackRock Midyear 2016 Golobal Investment Outlook report. Markets are torn between anxiety over the fallout from the UK’s vote to exit the European Union and the prospect of a strengthening U.S. economy. Downside risks to global growth point to a U.S. Federal Reserve on hold — and reinforce our view of low global interest rates for long. Our key views: Outlook Forum: At a mid-June gathering of some 90 BlackRock portfolio managers and executives, we had vigorous debates on the outlook for a rebound in U.S. inflation, the prospect of a turnaround in beaten-down emerging markets (EMs) and the woes afflicting the global financial sector. Themes: We updated our three themes for this year: 1) We are living in a low-return world; 2) Monetary policy has been a key driver of asset prices — but its effectiveness looks to be waning; 3) We see more volatility ahead as Brexit-related anxiety weighs on Europe’s economy and the business cycle matures. Risks: We see geopolitical uncertainties and a renewed rise in the U.S. dollar as near-term risks, and populism as a medium-term challenge for trade, growth and markets. A potential surprise: a rally in risk assets prompted by investors shifting out of cash and low-yielding assets in search of higher returns. Markets: We have turned more positive on most fixed income due to elevated geopolitical risks and easy monetary policy in a low-growth world. We like income, including investment-grade credit and EM debt. We are cautious on equities, particularly in Europe, given the turn in risk sentiment and poor profit growth. We prefer dividend growers and quality companies. We like gold as a portfolio diversifier. To learn more about BlackRock and other Money Managers, give us a call at 1-800-541-7774 or contact us here to speak with one of WrapManager's Wealth Managers. Download Full Commmentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Blackrock Inc [+] Read More

Europe on a Tightrope - BlackRock

May 25, 2012
BlackRock explains the Euro crisis in their recent report on Europe and answers many questions about it that investors have today. "Europe's crisis is accelerating and the next month looks critical. Greece is running out of money fast and local politics are in disarray. Banks are reeling from ratings downgrades, asset write-downs and fragile funding. Global markets again are held hostage by the Eurozone's turmoil. This is a short- and long-term crisis. Today's is all about funding while tomorrow's is about structural reform, finding the right mix of spending cuts and growth, and - most difficult of all - giving up sovereignty." Download Full Commmentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Blackrock Inc [+] Read More

Macroeconomic Backdrop Continues to Improve - BlackRock

February 23, 2012
Chief Equity Strategist at BlackRock Bob Doll reviews the improving economic backdrop of the US and around the globe. President Obama's proposed dividend income tax increase is also discussed. "The general economic trend in the United States over the past couple of months has been that positive surprises have outweighed negative ones and the overall tone of the data shows that economic improvements are continuing. The labor market in particular has been accelerating, with jobless claims on a noticeable downward trend. Even the housing market, which has long been a source of weakness, has begun to show some signs of life." Download Full Commmentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Blackrock Inc [+] Read More

Time to Move Into "Risk" Assets - BlackRock

January 9, 2012
Chief Equity Strategist for BlackRock Bob Doll reviews their asset allocation outlook for 2012. Their equity, fixed income and municipal fixed income outlooks for 2012 are also discussed. "Conditions have improved compared to last quarter, with the US economy showing signs of acceleration and European policymakers moving further along the path of progress. With the bearish tone receding, investors should consider moving into "risk" assets and out of "safe" assets, especially on pullbacks." Download Full Commmentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Blackrock Inc [+] Read More

The Third Quarter Ends on a Mixed Note - BlackRock

October 3, 2011
BlackRock's Chief Equity Strategist Bob Doll explains his thoughts for the third quarter and what information will be guiding the market. "Overall, our view remains that the United States will avoid a recession, but we acknowledge that the pressures are growing. Ultimately, we believe the outcome of the European situation will help determine whether or not, and in what direction, markets will be able to break out of their current trading range." Download Full Commmentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Blackrock Inc [+] Read More

Intense Volatility Rattles Investor Confidence - BlackRock

August 16, 2011
Bob Doll, Chief Equity Strategist at money manager BlackRock believes the fundamental foundations for the global economy should be sufficient to keep the recovery on track. "Our summary view is that we believe investors are overly pessimistic about the possibility of a renewed recession in the United States. It is important to remember that equity markets have a poor track record as acting as predictors of recessions and corporate fundamentals remain strong. Since 1950, the United States has never entered a recession with corporate balance sheets as flush with cash as they currently are." Download Full Commmentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Blackrock Inc [+] Read More