Wealth Management Blog | WrapManager | Economic/Market Outlook (4)

Cambiar Investors Reflects on 1st Quarter 2017

Posted by WrapManager's Investment Policy Committee

May 25, 2017

The year 2016 marked the first year since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-09 when value investing decisively beat growth investing as a category, with value-style returns exceeding growth style returns by roughly 10 percentage points in most capitalization categories last year. Value stock indices are heavily populated by financial companies, which tend to be very sensitive to interest rate trends. Unsurprisingly, financials, bond yields, and value stocks as a category leapt forward in sync following U.S. elections, and subsequently lagged in relative performance terms when the upward momentum in bond yields topped out in early January, perhaps reassessing how much real change can be wrought.

Whether or not value stocks truly “over-performed” in late 2016 or just needed to consolidate gains remains to be seen, but the change in market conditions in the first quarter suggests at least one of these narratives is true. Right around the Trump inauguration in January, market conditions flipped, and big cap growth stocks (which had lagged in late 2016) went on a tear while value names did little. The flip back from value to growth was most pronounced in small caps (growth benchmarks up over 5%, value indices down fractionally); that said, growth issues outpaced their value counterparts by a factor of 1.5x to 2.0x in most broader indexes.

Nuveen Believes the Political Backdrop Can Support Growth

April 12, 2017

Economic Growth, Not Politics, Is Probably the Biggest Risk For some time, we have argued that equities and other risk assets looked overextended following their strong run-up since the election. In recent weeks, equities have been trading sideways and government bond prices have recovered. More than politics, the economy probably presents a more probable roadblock for equities. We think economic sentiment may be too high and elevated confidence may make investors vulnerable to downside economic surprises. To be sure, we are not expecting a significant economic slowdown, but the nearly non-stop pace of positive economic data is unlikely to continue. At some point, a setback will likely be triggered by a manufacturing decline, soft oil prices, weakening data from China or some other factor, which could spark a risk-off phase. Nevertheless, we remain constructive in the medium and long-term toward risk assets, but are growing increasingly cautious about the short-term outlook. Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or download the entire investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More

Nuveen Observes Equities Sag as Political Optimism Returns to Earth

April 5, 2017

Where Can Investors Find Value in These Markets? Stocks experienced their largest one-week decline since the election, as the S&P 500 Index fell 1.4%.1 Most losses occurred on Tuesday when it became clear that the Republican health care plan was facing trouble, signaling that President Trump’s pro-growth economic agenda could falter. Small cap stocks, financials and industrials fared the worst last week, with utilities and REITs gaining ground. Treasury prices rallied for a second straight week, while the U.S. dollar fell for the third week. Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or download the entire investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More

What is a Good Strategic Value Dividend Strategy Under Trump? - Federated Investors

March 21, 2017

Our first and primary answer to the client question of what one can expect from investment in a Strategic Value Dividend product is the opportunity for a high and rising income stream from high-quality business assets. For our more stock market-oriented clients, our answer is that we have historically delivered broad market returns, plus or minus, depending on the measurement period, but with a notably lower standard deviation. Both of those propositions were in effect prior to the US Presidential election; both remain in effect today. That being said, the world is now quite different than it was on November 8. How has this reality affected our companies? In short, not much, but let’s review some of the possible “talking points” involving the new administration’s policies. Keep in mind that all of these proposals are, for now, just media speculation and Sunday talk show fodder. But let’s tally up the potential pros and cons. [+] Read More

Nuveen: Where to Find Value in 2017

March 6, 2017

Where Can Investors Find Value in These Markets? The recent behavior of equity and bond markets creates a conundrum for investors. Equity markets are rallying based largely on expectations for stronger economic growth, while bond yields have been falling and seem priced for economic stagnation. Which signal is correct? The economic environment may grow more complicated in time, but for now we expect acceleration to continue. Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or download the entire investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More

BlackRock: Tax Reform and Trump Trades

February 20, 2017

We see potential for volatility in the coming months as more reform details emerge. Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, discusses tax reform and the reflation trade. Turnhill was previously Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s fixed income and active equity businesses, and has also led the Global Equity investment team. Read an excerpt of his weekly commentary below, or view the entire weekly investment commentary here. [+] Read More

BlackRock: Returns in a Reflationary Environment

February 7, 2017

We have largely maintained our assumptions for equity returns while increasing those for fixed income. Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, gives us the week in review. Turnhill was previously Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s fixed income and active equity businesses, and has also led the Global Equity investment team. Read an excerpt of his weekly commentary below, or view the entire weekly investment commentary here. [+] Read More

Nuveen Weekly Commentary January 2017

January 24, 2017

Investors Await Clarity on Tax and Spending Policies Equity markets were mixed last week, with the S&P 500 Index down fractionally.1 Investors grew more wary about President-elect Trump’s increasing scrutiny of specific corporate policies and a possible push forhigher tariffs. The health care sector suffered due to drug pricing concerns, while retail sectors were hurt by generally disappointing earnings results. Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or the entire weekly investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More

Federated Investors 2017 Outlook

January 9, 2017

Stephen Auth, CFA and Chief Investment Officer, Equities, shares his expectations for 2017 including: The effect of the Trump administration and Republican Congress Fiscal stimulus vs. structural reform A new phase for the bull market "Climbing the Wall of Hope" through 2018. A selection is provided below, or you can download the complete commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More

Nuveen Weekly Commentary December 2016

December 19, 2016

Investors Focus on Positives, Ignoring Negatives Investor sentiment remained skewed positive last week, helping equity markets rally sharply. The S&P 500 Index surged 3.1%, as the focus remained on prospects for better economic growth, tax reform and potential fiscal stimulus in 2017. For the week, small caps and financials led the way, while health care stocks lagged. Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or view the entire weekly investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More