In brief: Following the 2015 decline, S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) fell -6.7% in the first quarter.1 Companies beat earnings estimates but missed revenue estimates. We maintain our view that the headwinds weighing on aggregate earnings— energy prices and a stronger dollar—will dissipate over the course of 2016, leading to mildly positive earnings growth for the year. However, we are keeping an eye on rising wages, which have the potential to press on earnings and margins just as other headwinds subside. When it comes to choosing the best metric for evaluating earnings, we prefer operating earnings, as they offer the cleanest view into a company’s day-today business. If the gradual earnings recovery that we anticipate occurs during the second half of 2016, we see some upside for U.S. equities.
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