Wealth Management Blog | WrapManager

JP Morgan Evaluates Implications of an Interest Rate Hike

Posted by WrapManager's Investment Policy Committee

June 15, 2017

After a brutal recession and a painfully slow recovery, the U.S. economy no longer needs emergency measures of support from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Policymakers began the process of normalizing monetary policy at the end of 2015, and although the Fed is raising rates because the economy is healthier, the prospect of higher interest rates has created consternation and angst among some investors.

While the Fed’s own projections are for a slow and gradual rate hike cycle, futures pricing suggests that the market thinks interetst rate hikes may be a bit slower. Although the gap between the Fed’s projections and the market’s view has narrowed, there is still room for surprises and volatility. The key thing to watch will be how market expectations adjust to the Fed’s new forecasts, as a Fed that hikes more quickly than the market expects could lead to upward pressure on the U.S. dollar and a de facto tightening for the U.S. economy.

Read the entire commentary here.

JP Morgan Considers Inflation's Next Phase

May 18, 2017

Around the globe, a synchronized upturn in nominal growth is underway, including an upturn in inflation. Global monetary policy is responding in kind. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is increasingly confident that inflation will hit its target rate and has begun accelerating its cautious rate-tightening cycle; the pendulum is gradually swinging toward tightening at other developed market (DM) central banks. The investing community’s perception of inflation risk has swung during the current expansion from fear of an inflationary surge after the Great Recession to fear of global deflation when oil prices collapsed and, since last year, back to a reflation theme, again accompanied by worries that some economies, particularly the U.S., could overshoot their central banks’ targets. By contrast, throughout these periods, inflation itself (at least excluding volatile energy and food prices) has displayed surprising stability. How far will reflation go in the U.S. and other developed market economies? How can we forecast inflation? Read the entire market commentary here. [+] Read More

JP Morgan Shares Their Guide to the Markets for 2Q 2017

May 11, 2017

JP Morgan Quarterly Guide to the Markets JP Morgan’s Guide to the Markets for the second quarter of 2017 is now available. The comprehensive guide includes pages of charts illustrating: Returns and valuations by style and by sector Fixed income yields and returns Annual returns and intra-year declines of the S&P 500 [+] Read More

JP Morgan Sees Potential in Europe, Emerging Markets

April 27, 2017

In the first quarter of 2016, investors feared that weak conditions in many emerging markets, commodities and global manufacturing would deteriorate into a full blown recession across the developed world and China. As stock markets struggled, equity investors overwhelmingly preferred defensive stocks and gave an unusually generous discount to companies vulnerable to weak economic activity and low interest rates. But the recession never arrived. Reduced fiscal austerity and continued easy monetary policy, coupled with greater confidence in the industrial sector and increased bank lending, have reignited global growth. Commodity prices have rallied, and the outlook for corporate profits now appears better than it has in several years. Though equity markets have moved quickly to price in the welcomed shift, we still see opportunities, especially outside the U.S., after many years of substantial returns for the S&P 500. Read the entire market commentary here. [+] Read More

JP Morgan: The Importance of Immigration

March 14, 2017

In the early days of the new administration, no issue has been more controversial than immigration. The president’s statements on building a wall on the U.S.'s southern border, his actions on banning travel from specific countries and his heightened focus on deporting illegal aliens have generated a negative response from his opponents and a positive reaction from some of his supporters. As with our entire 100 days of change series, we will try to steer clear of political arguments. Policies in this area do have significant implications for both the economy and, ultimately, financial markets. So what actions has the president taken and advocated, how might these affect both illegal and legal immigration and what could this mean for growth, inflation and investment returns? Read the entire market commentary here. [+] Read More

JP Morgan Trade Policy Chess

February 13, 2017

President Trump’s first few weeks in office have been busy on many fronts. However, for investors, his statements on trade policy maybe the most consequential. JP Morgan's Chief Global Strategist Dr. David Kelly, CFA, explains the differences and similarities among a tariff, a value-added tax (VAT) and a cash-flow tax with border adjustments (BAT) and how they might apply to Mexico. He then examines the effects of each for the U.S. economy, consumers and investors. Read the entire market commentary here. [+] Read More

JP Morgan Investment Outlook 2017

December 12, 2016

Economic warming and political warnings... Short-term interest rates remain extremely low given the relative health of both the U.S. and global economies. 2017 should be a year of global economic warming but also one of growing risks. However, with cash paying less than nothing in real terms in most of the world, investors should still be overweight long-term assets, with a tilt toward those that should do best in a world with somewhat stronger growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates. [+] Read More

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets 4Q 2016

October 24, 2016

JP Morgan Quarterly Guide to the Markets JP Morgan’s Guide to the Markets for the fourth quarter of 2016 is now available. This comprehensive guide includes pages of charts to illustrate the latest information about equities, investing opportunities, fixed income yields and returns, international markets and historical asset class performance. [+] Read More

JP Morgan Market Insights 2016: An Election of Extremes

October 17, 2016

JP Morgan Assets analyzes: Why economic angst has contributed to a frustrated electorate Why our base case of de facto divided government is what ultimately matters most for markets What history tells us about market behavior before, during and after presidential elections Why either a President Trump or Clinton will likely face a recession in his/her first term, and how investors should think about their portfolios given where we are in the economic cycle Read the entire market commentary here. [+] Read More

JP Morgan - 1Q16 earnings update: Beating estimates, but not yet growing

May 24, 2016

In brief: Following the 2015 decline, S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) fell -6.7% in the first quarter.1 Companies beat earnings estimates but missed revenue estimates. We maintain our view that the headwinds weighing on aggregate earnings— energy prices and a stronger dollar—will dissipate over the course of 2016, leading to mildly positive earnings growth for the year. However, we are keeping an eye on rising wages, which have the potential to press on earnings and margins just as other headwinds subside. When it comes to choosing the best metric for evaluating earnings, we prefer operating earnings, as they offer the cleanest view into a company’s day-today business. If the gradual earnings recovery that we anticipate occurs during the second half of 2016, we see some upside for U.S. equities. [+] Read More