J.P. Morgan's Chief Strategist, David Kelly, addresses the liklihood of a recession in the current, emotionally charged market enviroment. Read the full transcript of his commentary below.
"Hello. This is David Kelly. I’m Chief Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Funds.
In finance, almost as much as in politics, the most passionate and least reflective voices receive the most attention. A slump in Chinese stocks and the Chinese currency at the start of the year triggered a global stock market selloff. This, together with lower oil prices and some pretty weak numbers on global manufacturing, prompted many loud voices to say that the U.S. is either already in recession or is falling into one with near certainty. These dire predictions, in turn, have frightened many investors who remember the pain of seeing the stock market fall in half in the last two recessions.
However, in this emotionally charged atmosphere, there are four key aspects of the current economic and financial environment that investors need to appreciate:
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