JP Morgan's weekly update offers investors an at-a-glance summary of economic news and reports.This week's update looks at: • Economic growth • Corporate profits • Employment • Changes at The Fed Read an excerpt from this week's update below, or download JP Morgan's complete economic commentary. [+] Read More

Updated with 4Q 2017 Data JP Morgan's updated Guide to the Markets for the first quarter of 2018 now includes financial data for 4Q 2017, including: S&P500 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Corporate earnings: capex vs. payouts Cash flow and corporate debt for S&P 500 companies This 71-page guide is full of charts that provide key insights into the labor market, housing, corporate debt and other key financial topics. Download J.P. Morgan's updated Guide to Markets for 1Q 2018, or continue reading to learn more about the information it contains. [+] Read More

JP Morgan Quarterly Guide to the Markets JP Morgan’s Guide to the Markets for the first quarter of 2018 is now available for your review. The comprehensive 71-page guide includes 65 pages of charts illustrating: Trends across equities, the economy, the fixed income sector and international investing Returns and valuations by style and by sector Fixed income yields and returns Annual returns and intra-year declines of the S&P 500 Investor allocation by region The power of compounding The retirement savings gap [+] Read More

JP Morgan's weekly update offers a snapshot of changes in the economy and potential implications for investors. This week's investment themes include: • Earnings growth, coupled with slowly rising interest rates, makes stocks look attractive in relative terms. • High-yield bonds look more attractive than Treasuries, but a diversified approach to fixed income investing seems appropriate given Fed tightening. • International exposure is warranted given growth prospects abroad, and a weaker dollar can enhance foreign returns. [+] Read More

JP Morgan Reviews Investing Opportunities & Rate Expectations JP Morgan’s Guide to the Markets for fourth quarter 2017 is now available. This comprehensive, 60+ page guide includes insightful charts illustrating: Corporate profits and financials Fixed income sector returns Local investing and global opportunities Federal funds rate expectations [+] Read More

Given our positive view on growth, we maintain a pro-risk tilt in our asset allocation. As the U.S. economy moves into late cycle, we are naturally more attuned to any dip in higher frequency data, but currently we see little risk of recession in the next 12 months. As a result, we remain overweight (OW) stock-bond and underweight (UW) duration—albeit with slightly lower conviction in light of the failure of inflation expectations to advance alongside other macro data. Correlation across regional indices remains low, favoring broad diversification across global equity markets. But at the margin our most favored regions remain the eurozone and Japan, ahead of the U.S. and emerging markets, with the UK our least preferred region. In bond markets we expect yields to grind higher over the fourth quarter and see U.S. Treasuries outperforming most other sovereign markets, in particular German Bunds, which look vulnerable given the robust level of eurozone growth. Elsewhere we remain neutral on credit, real estate and commodities, and UW cash. In a distinctly mature credit cycle, returns from credit will come from carry rather than capital appreciation; nevertheless, we expect credit to outperform government bonds even if it lags stocks. Overall, we take a pro-risk stance in our portfolios but are mindful that with the economic cycle maturing, liquidity and diversification are paramount. Read the entire market commentary here. [+] Read More

After a brutal recession and a painfully slow recovery, the U.S. economy no longer needs emergency measures of support from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Policymakers began the process of normalizing monetary policy at the end of 2015, and although the Fed is raising rates because the economy is healthier, the prospect of higher interest rates has created consternation and angst among some investors. While the Fed’s own projections are for a slow and gradual rate hike cycle, futures pricing suggests that the market thinks interetst rate hikes may be a bit slower. Although the gap between the Fed’s projections and the market’s view has narrowed, there is still room for surprises and volatility. The key thing to watch will be how market expectations adjust to the Fed’s new forecasts, as a Fed that hikes more quickly than the market expects could lead to upward pressure on the U.S. dollar and a de facto tightening for the U.S. economy. Read the entire commentary here. [+] Read More

Around the globe, a synchronized upturn in nominal growth is underway, including an upturn in inflation. Global monetary policy is responding in kind. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is increasingly confident that inflation will hit its target rate and has begun accelerating its cautious rate-tightening cycle; the pendulum is gradually swinging toward tightening at other developed market (DM) central banks. The investing community’s perception of inflation risk has swung during the current expansion from fear of an inflationary surge after the Great Recession to fear of global deflation when oil prices collapsed and, since last year, back to a reflation theme, again accompanied by worries that some economies, particularly the U.S., could overshoot their central banks’ targets. By contrast, throughout these periods, inflation itself (at least excluding volatile energy and food prices) has displayed surprising stability. How far will reflation go in the U.S. and other developed market economies? How can we forecast inflation? Read the entire market commentary here. [+] Read More

JP Morgan Quarterly Guide to the Markets JP Morgan’s Guide to the Markets for the second quarter of 2017 is now available. The comprehensive guide includes pages of charts illustrating: Returns and valuations by style and by sector Fixed income yields and returns Annual returns and intra-year declines of the S&P 500 [+] Read More