Wealth Management Blog | WrapManager | Nuveen Asset Management

Nuveen Sees Economic Growth Picking Up, Believes It Should Help Stock Prices

Posted by WrapManager's Investment Policy Committee

September 13, 2018

Nuveen Sees Economic Growth Picking Up, Believes It Should Help Stock Prices

Trade issues may continue to cause trouble but shouldn’t derail the bull market or end the economic expansion.

Investor sentiment was mixed last week. Negatives included concerns about market liquidity, sparked by the rising value of the U.S. dollar and fears of contagion from some emerging markets. Ongoing trade issues also posed a general concern, particularly fears surrounding a potential new round of U.S./Chinese tariffs. On the positive side, investors focused on strong U.S. economic data that pointed to accelerating growth. The negatives won in the end, as the S&P 500 Index fell 1% for the week, after rising during eight of the nine previous trading weeks.

Liquidity Concerns Appear Overstated

Some investors are growing more concerned about shrinking liquidity as the Federal Reserve raises rates and shrinks its balance sheet, the value of the dollar climbs and select emerging markets such as Turkey and Argentina experience currency crises. Of all of these factors, we are most concerned about the rising dollar. The increase is not overly problematic by itself, but we would be more worried if interest rates were higher and rising more quickly and/or if economic growth were decelerating.

On balance, we recognize that market liquidity is growing more constrained and the current economic cycle and equity bull market are in their later stages. But we believe such concerns are overwrought. The global banking system remains healthy and global monetary policy is still relatively easy, which suggests that a liquidity squeeze isn’t in the cards.

Nuveen Sees Investors Looking Past Risks to Bid Stocks to New Highs

August 30, 2018

We see threats to equities, but we don't believe this bull market is over. Last week featured multiple negative political headlines for President Donald Trump that questioned the stability of his administration. The news was also dominated by signs of increased trade tensions between the U.S. and China, as well as statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that interest rate hikes were likely to continue. Despite the noise, however, investors continued moving money into stocks, causing the current bull market to become the longest in history and the S&P 500 Index to reach new record highs by the end of last week. It is natural to ask what risks will likely cause the bull market to end, as equity prices again reach new highs and the roller coaster action that has dominated markets since February appears to be over (at least for now). Rising protectionism appears to be the biggest theat. From a rational perspective, we think this risk should fade since trade restrictions are ultimately a lose-lose proposition. And the United States appears more willing to negotiate than President Trump’s tough rhetoric would indicate. Trade uncertainty remains a wildcard, but we still believe that an all-out trade war is unlikely. [+] Read More

Nuveen Reports Fundamentals Helping Stock Prices Push Higher

August 2, 2018

U.S. Indices Are Mixed, While Corporate Earnings Draw Headlines Investors focused last week on a moderate easing of trade tensions and a solid second quarter gross domestic product report. Corporate earnings also drew headlines, particularly troubled results that ravaged Facebook’s stock price. U.S. indices were mixed, although the S&P 500 Index posted a fourth weekly gain, rising 0.6%. The energy, industrials and financial sectors were the best-performing areas, while technology and consumer discretionary came under pressure. Highlights Strong economic growth and stellar corporate earnings continue to provide reasons for investors to bid stock prices higher. Trade tensions eased a bit last week, but uncertainty over policy is keeping financial markets in check. We expect the equity market to maintain its current trading range until trade tensions ease. [+] Read More

Nuveen Sees Investors Looking Past Geopolitics, But Trade Remains a Wildcard

June 21, 2018

While Last Week Was Very Eventful, Investors Shrugged Off Most of the Developments That Drove Headlines President Trump’s comments at the G7 meeting the previous weekend generated a lot of criticism, but investors mostly ignored any possible implications. Similarly, the U.S./North Korea summit appeared to open the way for further dialogue, but did not move the markets. Likewise, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase last week had already been baked into market expectations. Stock prices did decline on Friday in reaction to the U.S. announcing it would impose tariffs on Chinese goods, but equity markets were mostly flat to mixed for the week as a whole. Highlights Investors mostly ignored the U.S./North Korea summit and last week’s Fed meeting. But rising trade risks are weighing on sentiment. U.S. growth is accelerating, as is inflation. This should prompt the Fed to continue increasing rates. We see several possible risks to stocks, but believe equities should continue to outperform bonds over the next year. [+] Read More

Nuveen Sees Equities Treading Water, Although Fundamentals Look Solid

May 31, 2018

Equities Prices Are Likely to Continue Churning, But Should Eventually Move Higher Equity markets struggled to gain clear direction last week. Investors focused on geopolitical issues, particularly U.S./China trade negotiations and the on-again-off-again prospects for a summit with North Korea. Other issues included the sustainability of the U.S. and global economic expansions, rising bond yields, the spike in oil prices and Federal Reserve policy. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.3% for the week. Income-oriented sectors, technology and consumer discretionary led the way, while energy and materials were laggards. Treasury markets also gained ground as the 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 3%. [+] Read More

Nuveen Feels Reasons for Optimism Outweigh Reasons for Caution

May 10, 2018

Reasons for Optimism Slightly Outweigh Reasons for Caution Corporate earnings were in focus for much of last week. Results continued to come in stronger than expected and earnings are on track for their best quarter since 2010. But concerns remain that earnings growth may have peaked in the current cycle. Investors also focused on economic data, including another drop in U.S. unemployment and indications that global growth momentum may be slowing. Amid these crosscurrents, stocks were mixed, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 0.2% for the week. Technology was a standout performer, while telecommunications and healthcare lagged. Upside and Downside Risks May Result in Ongoing Volatility We do not believe that we are close to the end of the current cycle of global economic expansion, but the endgame may develop more quickly than many investors expect. At this point, it appears that upside and downside risks for the economy and financial markets may be pretty well balanced. [+] Read More

A Comparison of Perspectives: Nuveen & BlackRock Share Weekly Investing Outlooks

April 26, 2018

As market volatility continues to be a focus point for investors, money managers are keeping a close eye on key market indicators. This week we share the market commentaries presented by Robert C. Doll, CFA, the Senior Portfolio Manager and Chief Equity Strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, and Richard Turnill, the Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock. While their analyses highlight many of the same economic and market factors, their interpretations have distinct flavors. Doll feels that while the “equity markets have been buffeted by a number of credible threats so far in 2018,” it “shouldn’t be enough to actually cause a bear market,” yet, “these risks will need to ease before stocks can regain their footing.” Interestingly, Turnill feels that “the market environment in 2018 has returned to a more ‘normal’ mix of lower returns and higher volatility,” which “reflects rising economic uncertainty and less room for growth to exceed expectations,” but should not “spell the end of the equity bull market, now in its ninth year.” Continue reading for a more detailed analysis of the current market from both Nuveen Asset Management and BlackRock Investment Institute. [+] Read More

Nuveen Believes Market Fundamentals Remain Solid Over the Long-Term

March 29, 2018

Are investors overly pessimistic about downside market risks? While fundamentals haven’t changed significantly, volatility has picked up recently and stocks have been trading in a broad range between their early February highs and the low established in last month’s correction. The U.S. and global economies appear on sound footing, inflation pressures appear contained, the labor market remains strong, corporate earnings are solid and interest rates have been rising only modestly. Given this divergence between our views and market behavior, we think it makes sense to focus on why we think some risks may be overstated. Read a summary of Nuveen Asset Management's weekly investment commentary below, or download as a PDF. [+] Read More

Nuveen Weighs the Effect of Trade Tariffs & Investors Bidding Up Stock Prices

March 15, 2018

Investors look past trade risks as stocks gain ground... President Trump’s proclamation of 10 - 25% trade tariffs dominated most of the financial headlines last week, but investors looked past the negatives to bid up stock prices. The S&P 500 Index rose 3.6% last week. Half of that gain came on Friday, following a strong labor market report that showed jobs increases and stable wages. For the week, industrials, financials, technology and materials were all up over 4%, while utilities lagged. Treasury yields also rose last week in the face of stronger economic data. Read a summary of Nuveen Asset Management's weekly market review below, or download the entire investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More

Nuveen Evaluates Environment for Market Growth, Volatility

February 22, 2018

Stocks recover ground as the focus returns to fundamentals... Stocks rebounded last week as investors appeared to return their focus to improving economic growth and solid corporate earnings. The S&P 500 Index jumped 4.4% and experienced its best week in more than five years. While stocks remain down for the month, they are back in positive territory for the year. Volatility also declined last week as markets calmed down slightly. Treasury yields rose last week as the yield curve flattened. At one point, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 2.94% before declining. While we may see further market volatility, it appears the worst of the recent correction is in the rear view mirror Read a summary of Nuveen Asset Management's weekly market review below, or download the entire investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More